Arizona Real Estate, October 2026: A Borrower's Read, County by County
A private lender's read on the Arizona market for the people who borrow against it: statewide and county by county, with every source named and every reading dated.
By Alex English, NMLS #2654939, Kenwood Mortgage Investments
Kenwood has made private, first-position loans on real estate across Arizona since 1992. This is the market as the people writing the checks see it: the state first, then each county we track. The figures below carry their dates, and where we have no measurement, we say so instead of filling the gap. If you place capital rather than borrow it, our read for investors covers the price of money, credit and the cycle record.
- 29,571Homes listed for sale in Arizona, Sept 2026, up 1,863 on the year
- 65Median days on market statewide, Sept 2026
- 7.40%30-year mortgage, week of Oct 15, 2026
The short version. Across Arizona there are more homes for sale than a year ago, they are taking longer to sell than is normal for the state, and sellers are asking a little less. The buyer who takes out your project is quoted against a 7.40% national mortgage average. Write a deal to those levels, not to a hoped-for change in them.
How is the Arizona housing market doing?
More supply, slower sales, slightly lower asking prices, statewide.
In September 2026, Arizona had 29,571 homes listed for sale, 1,863 more than a year earlier (+6.7%), on Realtor.com’s count. The median listing sat 65 days on market. That is above the state’s 52-day median over the last 123 months, and only 13 of those months ran longer. The median asking price was $459,900, down 3.53% on the year.
The same pattern holds county by county. Across the state and the 11 counties we track, listings are up on the year in all 12 readings, asking prices are down in 10, and in every one, listings are sitting longer than their own median since 2016.
- September 2026
- That county's own median since 2016
Two limits travel with every county number here. They are asking prices on listings, not sale prices, so they say what sellers want, not what homes are worth. And days on market mixes renovated and original-condition homes of every price and type; none of the measures we hold isolates renovated homes, which is what a flip sells.
The lender’s read: give the hold enough room that you are not forced to take the first offer. Every area we track is slower than its own normal, so a schedule built on a fast sale is built on the exception.
County by county
All figures are September 2026, Realtor.com listing data via FRED. Asking prices are listing prices, not sales. The pending ratio is pending listings divided by active listings: the higher it is, the more of what is for sale is already under contract.
| Area | Median asking price | On the year | Days on market (median since 2016) | Homes for sale (change on the year) | Pending ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona (statewide) | $459,900 | -3.53% | 65 (52) | 29,571 (+1,863) | not reported |
| Phoenix metro (Maricopa) | $499,000 | -4.95% | 61 (47) | 15,780 (+1,282) | 0.3126 |
| Pinal | $385,000 | -2.53% | 64 (51) | 2,657 (+11) | 0.3448 |
| Tucson (Pima) | $372,500 | -3.25% | 58 (51) | 3,851 (+93) | 0.3406 |
| Prescott (Yavapai) | $625,000 | -3.85% | 79 (66) | 1,814 (+38) | 0.2917 |
| Flagstaff (Coconino) | $741,000 | +4.37% | 88 (65) | 765 (+95) | 0.3100 |
| Lake Havasu, Kingman (Mohave) | $399,950 | -4.00% | 76 (66) | 1,527 (+52) | 0.2398 |
| Yuma | $352,450 | +1.80% | 62 (58) | 687 (+105) | 0.2149 |
| Sierra Vista (Cochise) | $315,000 | -9.12% | 74 (71) | 519 (+2) | 0.3423 |
| Show Low (Navajo) | $482,425 | -7.26% | 88 (71) | 844 (+93) | 0.1949 |
| Payson (Gila) | $499,950 | -0.01% | 91 (70) | 475 (+32) | 0.2076 |
| Nogales (Santa Cruz) | $356,250 | -1.04% | 88 (82) | 284 (+27) | not published |
What stands out:
- Slowest: Payson (Gila County) at 91 days, against its own 70-day median.
- Closest to normal: Sierra Vista (Cochise County) at 74 days against 71, though its asking price fell the most, 9.12%.
- Asking prices rose in two areas only: Flagstaff (Coconino County), +4.37%, and Yuma County, +1.80%.
- Most of what is listed already under contract: Pinal County, with a pending ratio of 0.3448, the highest of the 10 areas that report one. Show Low (Navajo County) is lowest, at 0.1949.
- Phoenix metro, on its own measures: 4.45 months of supply (ARMLS, September, carried forward); home values flat, +0.05% on the year to July on the Case-Shiller index; and in the $350K to $400K band, sellers gave about $11,000 in credits on 71% of closings (Cromford Report, October 13).
What does a refinance exit cost right now?
The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.40% nationally, and it has not come down.
Freddie Mac’s national 30-year average reads 7.40% for the week of October 15, 2026, unchanged on the week. It is the highest since November 16, 2023, and it is not a record: 1,385 of the 2,899 weekly readings since 1971 sit at or above it.
The rest of the price of money, as of October 18, 2026:
- 15-year mortgage, week of Oct 156.71%, down 2 basis points
- Federal funds target range, set at the Sept 16 meeting3.75% to 4.00%
- 10-year Treasury, September average4.99%, highest of 201 observations
- 10-year inflation-protected real yield, September2.64%
The real yield puts the level in context: only 5 of the 285 months since 2003 sit at or above 2.64%, and the last one before now was November 2008.
The lender’s read: bring a sale exit you can demonstrate, and document a backup plan at closing. If your plan needs a refinance, underwrite it well above where a conforming buyer is quoted today.
Is credit tight?
No. Credit is available. Money is expensive.
The Federal Reserve’s national survey of bank lending officers shows standards on commercial and industrial loans at 0.0 net tightening for the third quarter of 2026, exactly the median of 146 quarters and down from 18.5 five quarters ago. Standards on commercial construction and land loans read -3.7: net loosening, the first negative reading since the January 2022 survey, and the 17th percentile of 52 quarters.
Permits, land and commercial
Land. What an entitled lot trades at against raw land, and whether raw land is priced rationally against finished product, are both knowable. We do not carry a current, dated measurement of either, or of how long land listings take to sell, so we publish none.
Arizona permitted 4,172 private housing units in August 2026, seasonally adjusted, on the Census Bureau’s count, a figure carried forward from an earlier read. That counts every unit type, so one apartment project can carry the whole move, and a permit is a supply decision made months earlier. It is never a demand signal.
Commercial. This read does not cover commercial property.
How a private lender is reading it
Conditions are Cautious as of October 18, 2026. Our October 18 weekly review held that posture and changed no lending parameter.
What has changed inside it is where the caution points: at time, not at value. Exits take longer and cost more, across the state and not only in Phoenix, so time and funding are the first things we look at, and leverage second.
Whether any of this looks like 2007, and what ninety years of cycles say about it, is in our read for investors.
What this read cannot tell you
We hold no measurement, as of October 18, 2026, on any of these, so none appears above:
- Current sale prices or values for counties outside Phoenix. The county figures above are asking prices; the latest county sale medians we hold are second-quarter readings.
- Whether Phoenix values moved after July.
- Days on market for renovated homes only.
- A market-wide flip margin, or cap rates by property class.
- Whether Arizona distress is turning.
A level we do not have is stated as missing, never filled in from a national figure or a rule of thumb.
The statewide and national figures, in one table
Statewide and national readings, as of October 18, 2026. Figures marked carried forward come from an earlier read, not the current month.
| What | Reading | Date and source |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year mortgage | 7.40%, unchanged on the week | Week of Oct 15, 2026; Freddie Mac |
| 30-year mortgage, a year earlier | 6.27% | Week of Oct 16, 2025; Freddie Mac |
| 15-year mortgage | 6.71%, down 2 basis points | Week of Oct 15, 2026; Freddie Mac |
| Federal funds target range | 3.75% to 4.00% | Set at the Sept 16, 2026 meeting; Federal Reserve |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.99% September average, highest of 201 monthly observations since 2010 | September 2026; U.S. Treasury via FRED |
| 10-year real yield | 2.64%; 5 of 285 months since 2003 at or above | September 2026 |
| Bank lending standards | 0.0 commercial and industrial; -3.7 construction and land | Q3 2026; Federal Reserve survey |
| Housing permits, Arizona | 4,172 private units, all types, seasonally adjusted | August 2026; U.S. Census Bureau, carried forward |
| Phoenix home values | 326.681, +0.05% year over year | July 2026; S&P Cotality Case-Shiller |
| Phoenix metro months of supply | 4.45 | September 2026; ARMLS, carried forward |
| Phoenix seller credits, $350K to $400K | about $11,000 on 71% of closings | Oct 13, 2026; Cromford Report |
| Market posture | Cautious, held at the Oct 18 weekly review, which changed no lending parameter | Oct 18, 2026; Kenwood |
Have a deal on your desk that stalled on financing? That is the one to send us. Call us at (480) 783-8800 or email loans@kenwoodmortgage.com. You get a straight answer from the person who underwrites it. Lending on Arizona real estate since 1992.
General market information, not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Figures come from public real estate and economic data and from our own records, and all of it will change. All loans are subject to underwriting approval; terms, rates, amounts and structure vary by deal and are confirmed in writing. Investment and business-purpose real estate only, Arizona properties only. No owner-occupied and no consumer lending. Nothing here is an offer or a solicitation.
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