Although it is convenient shorthand to use terms such as buyer’s market and seller’s market, those broad characterizations of Valley cities do not always capture what is happening in specific neighborhoods. Those nearby pockets, no more than a couple of streets over, are what matter most to you as a buyer or seller. Even in high-performing communities, some pockets are performing better than others. It all comes down to basic economics: Inventory is competition. If demand is constant or increasing slightly, but there is a lot of inventory building up in a given neighborhood, that will dampen pricing and impact negotiability.
October and November are traditionally the big months for relisting luxury properties, trying to attract the attention of winter visitors. One of the unknowns for this winter, both within luxury and other price points, is the decrease in the number of Canadian snowbirds and therefore potential homebuyers. Between tariffs and trade issues, political tensions, and the weak Canadian dollar, our northern neighbors are reducing the amount of travel to the U.S. in general and Arizona in particular, by an estimated 20-30% vs. 2024.
From October to November 2025, the supply-demand index increased from 78.8 to 79.2, with both the individual supply and demand indexes rising slightly. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve dropped the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% at their meeting on October 29. They also announced they would end the reduction of their securities holdings on December 1, which could further stabilize mortgage rates. While the government shutdown has ended, the Federal Reserve is still lacking specific reports for October regarding jobs and inflation. As a result, they are not promising further rate cuts at their next meeting on December 10. Mortgage rates remain between 6.1-6.3%, which is only the third time in the past 3 years that rates have dropped to the low 6% range. However, in the past they haven’t stayed there for long. This time it has lasted for nearly 3 months, providing a needed demand boost for Q4.
You can read all the details in the R.O.I. Properties “Real State – Residential” newsletter, with additional statistics, market trends and information, but here’s a quick peek at the highlights:
Originally shared via roiproperties.com newsletter. Click here to read full newsletter.
