R.O.I. Real State – Residential Newsletter – June 2026

Mortgage rates have remained in a holding pattern in the 6.5% range for the past month. While there has been pressure from the administration to ease rates, the Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate steady at their July meeting—with no commitment to lower any time soon and even some potential for an increase if inflation persists.

In the Greater Phoenix residential market, we are seeing acceptance of this reality among homebuyers, particularly in entry-level and move-up product. Although interest rates are not on their side, softened pricing and increased negotiability are helping to send more buyers back into the market. Prices are not what they were pre-Covid, nor will they get there, but they have fallen from the highs of 2022–early 2023, at least for entry level and move-up product.

The other interesting factor is that many deals are stickier, with committed buyers moving through the sales process more diligently. For example, we are seeing BINSRs (Buyer’s Inspection Notice & Seller’s Response) coming in well under the 10-day deadline, with fewer requests for corrections, remediation or last-minute bids on repair work.

Buyers remain optimistic that they will have the opportunity to refinance at some point with a lower rate. At the moment, there is too little spread between fixed and ARMs to send prospective buyers or borrowers in the direction of variable rate loans. The exception is wholesalers or fix-and-flip investors who do not plan to hold a property for the long term.

By the Numbers. From May to June 2026, the supply-demand index decreased 0.6 points from 82.0 to 81.4. The supply index dropped 2.9 points from 107.2 to 104.3, while the demand index fell 3.0 points from 87.9 to 84.9. Since both indexes declined by roughly the same amount, there was little change in overall index.